Let's GOTV, kemosabe!

If you’re not a baby-boomer, you may need to be reminded that the man Tonto called “kemosabe” (kee-moe-sah-bee) was the Lone Ranger, and the Lone Ranger’s white steed was named Silver.  Like many liberals these last few months, I too have got big hopes for truth, justice and the American way riding on Silver – Mr. Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight Blog note.

The day before Election Day, Silver’s model for pooling state polling data and mixing all up in his own “secret sauce” of weightings and contextual variables has Obama’s projected results looking like this:

Chance of Winning            Electoral vote

         86.3%                         307.2

To place that in perspective, 538’s peak percentage win probability for President Obama just prior to the Denver debacle was 87.1%, and the dive that began on October 4^th bottomed out at 61.1% on October 12.  The dramatic footnote to that 61.1% trough was Silver’s noting that, according to his statistical model, any race in which the leading candidate’s probability was at or below 60% is considered for predictive practical purposes a “Toss-up”.   

This 86.3% probability is a hopeful indicator, but it means nothing and in fact could be harmful to Obama's re-election if it makes anyone think her or his vote doesn't matter. There are polls out that show Pennsylvania as a toss-up, which Nate -- with PA shown on his site with "97.9% chance of Obama win" -- would find dubious, but it's scary nevertheless.

Now, we focus on these polls because we are so acutely aware and concerned about the stakes of this election, and in our very well-grounded and reasonable anxiety we look for something reassuring, like a life raft to keep us psychically floating above the waters roiling with sharks of doubt and fear.

Still, getting excited about optimistic indicators does not mitigate at all that we are primarily excited and anxious about the real opportunities and consequences that are at stake.

At this point we damn well know what they are, so I drill down to just one: the next four years could see the appointment of several new Supreme Court justices. That would mean a legacy of decades that could bend the trajectory of American history toward further progress or toward the deeper entrenchment of plutocracy. Romney appointments would mean the reversal of 70 years of social-economic progress that has expanded rights for women, minorities, immigrants, workers and everyone who believes in the constructive and protective role of government.

The Court is teetering on the verge of a plutocratic rubber stamp majority, but the opportunity is also presented to install justices who will ensure a long-enduring majority for continuing American progress toward... JUSTICE.

That is to say, this is a historic election.

I'm stating the obvious and perhaps preaching to the choir; I encourage everyone else to nag your progressive friends and family too. The only way the 86.3% probability becomes 100% reality is by turning every potential Obama voter accounted for in these polls into a voter who has voted for Obama.

I take heart, but I ain't one bit cocky. I am scared to my bones at the chance that Romney’s 14.7% chance, his one shot in seven – bolstered by voter suppression and God-knows-what software voodoo -- could stick us with a R/R ticket to plutocracy**.

In an hour I ship out to go place "door-hangers" on people's front doors to remind them to get to the polls tomorrow. The primitive state of Pennsylvania has never had early voting, so we put it all on the line tomorrow.

I am hoping that Obama supporters in Eastern Pennsylvania, New York City and New Jersey will make the extra effort they may have to make to vote. Whatever the hell we have to do to cast our votes, let's DO IT!  Let’s Get Out The Vote!

** Robert Reich has a very clear-eyed ten-point description of "Romneyism" in Reader Supported News today. It is the operational definition of plutocratic values and governance.